Article Details

Abstract

Download Paper

A Parametric Evaluation of Nigeria Inflation Rates Using SARIMAX Multiple Time Series Model

The influence of a few economic factors on predicting the inflation rate in Nigeria are looked at in this study.  Between 2005 and 2020, monthly data on Nigeria's inflation rate were taken from the CBN website. Models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, and SARIMAX were fitted to the data. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was deemed to be the best model, with SARIMAX models outperforming ARIMA and SARIMA models in terms of accuracy with reduced error metrics. The SARIMAX model also concluded that the exogenous factors included in this study—the All-Share index, the money supply, the interest rate, and the exchange rate—have an adverse influence on the inflation rate. As a consequence, the findings show that the model is effective, and only the interest rate was statistically significant at the 5% among the four exogenous variables.

Authors: Stephen O. Are & Olubisi L. Aako & Gabriel O. Ojo